Defections to help the BJP are not limited to Maharashtra. They have happened across states. Here’s the how and the why of a phenomenon that started in 2014, but merely mirroring what the Congress did when it was in power.

“Mr Sharad Pawar is sitting here... my friend Jaswant Singh was saying how Sharad Pawar broke his party and formed his government. Whether he did that for power or for the good of Maharashtra is a different matter, but he broke his party. I didn’t do any such thing,” Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee said in Parliament on May 27, 1996.

The iconic BJP leader knew full well that his 13-day government was going to fall that afternoon because he couldn’t muster up the numbers.

“I have been in power before and I have never done anything immoral for power. If breaking up political parties is the only way to stay in power, I do not want to touch such a coalition even with a pair of tongs,” Vajpayee said in what turned out to be his resignation speech, beamed to millions of households and credited with the BJP’s return.

About 27 years later, as fate would have it, several MLAs, including senior leaders, from Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have followed his nephew, Ajit Pawar, into joining the BJP-Sena government in Maharashtra. The senior Pawar has been one of the key figures to unite the Opposition against PM Modi who seeks a third straight term in next year’s national polls.

In his much-talked-about address, Vajpayee had also criticised the practice of parties fighting elections as opponents and then coming together for power. Sharad Pawar’s party had fought the last Maharashtra polls, in 2019, against the BJP. But then the NCP had also fought the election against the Congress and the (erstwhile) Shiv Sena but went on to form a government with them. This was till Eknath Shinde broke the Sena and formed a government with the BJP a year ago.

To be sure, the BJP continued, more or less, to follow the policy of not encouraging or accepting defections from other parties till 2013 when the party, despite being within the striking distance of the majority mark, chose not to stake claim to form a government in Delhi. It allowed the AAP (and the Congress) to have a shot at power

Things started changing in 2014, incidentally the time when the BJP returned to power at the Centre. Here are some examples:

• Almost all Congress MLAs in Arunachal Pradesh moved to the BJP which has been in power in the northeastern state since then.
• In 2014 itself, nine Congress MLAs defected to the BJP in Uttarakhand. It opened the door to power for the saffron party in the hill state.
• In 2015, Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma joined the BJP, though as part of an individual switch and not a mass defection, beginning a process of the saffron party’s eventual dominance in India’s northeast.
• In 2017, the BJP won Manipur. This was after one Congress MLA defected, and eight others backed the BJP without quitting the Congress.
• In 2019, the Congress-JDS alliance in Karnataka lost 16 MLAs to defection. They resigned and the BJP came to power.
• In 2020, Jyotiraditya Scindia quit the Congress along with 22 MLAs, bringing the BJP back to power in Madhya Pradesh.
• In 2022, eight Congress MLAs defected to the BJP in Goa, a state where “real” elections (read defections) have often happened after assembly polls.

Why the BJP accepts defections is quite obvious. It wants to expand its support base and further weaken the already fragmented Opposition. But why other parties split and their leaders and legislators switch over could be less obvious. Here are some possible explanations.

POWER PULL: It’s always about power and less about personalities. Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) data will show that when the Congress was in power at the Centre, it automatically invited a huge number of defections. The BJP, in power for nearly two terms now, is merely mirroring what the Congress was once in India’s political sphere.

MODI MANIA: Few would argue that PM Modi remains the biggest vote catcher in India’s electoral scene. Many leaders and party factions feel their political future is safer when associated with the BJP and when PM Modi campaigns for them. A case in point is, as poll data shows, how his last-leg canvassing in Bihar in the 2020 assembly polls revived then-ally JDU’s chances of retaining power. His returns for allies in the last two national polls are robust.

WEAKENING OPPN: This switch becomes more possible because of the weakening of India’s political Opposition, particularly the Congress, save for the recent exceptions of Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. Also, despite the Congress has been weakened, many leaders felt sidelined and had little choice but to ensure a thriving political future. Himanta and Scindia are prime examples.

HINDUTVA FACTOR: Post 2014, India’s political realities have changed. While the AAP in Delhi seeks images of Hindu gods and goddesses on currency notes and backs the BJP’s push for a Uniform Civil Code (UCC), Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, whose father was called Mulla Mulayam by some, has not been too excited about hosting annual iftars in Uttar Pradesh. In short, while parties are avoiding displays of overt minoritarianism, the BJP is no longer the political pariah it once was.

IDEOLOGY ISSUE: Except perhaps for the two strong ideology-driven and cadre-based blocs of the Right and the Left, most other parties are driven by personalities. The intensity of their politics is decided by the aspirations and ambitions of their leaders, including Sharad Pawar. Their ideologies could never become too distinct and have, in fact, undergone dilution over the years. The NCP was anyway born out of anti-Congressism, and even though it had good working relations with the grand old party, the Sunday switch isn’t really as shocking as it seemed.

CENTRAL AGENCIES: The Opposition has been crying foul over tax raids, CBI probes or Enforcement Directorate notices to leaders of Opposition parties. The allegation, of course, denied by the BJP, has been that some leaders readily join the saffron bloc for a more peaceful political career. Be that as it may, some of those from the NCP who joined the BJP-Sena government on Sunday include Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal facing investigations by central agencies. Earlier, a group of Opposition parties moved the Supreme Court over the issue of “select targeting” of Opposition leaders. And, of course, the talk of horse trading has never left the political stable!